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Michael Howell

23 min read

Michael Howell is the founder and CEO of CrossBorder Capital, a London-based macro-research firm building global-liquidity indicators for institutional clients since the early 1990s. His Global Liquidity Index (GLI) is the canonical institutional measure of worldwide capital available for asset allocation, treating central-bank balance sheets, commercial-bank credit creation, shadow-banking liquidity, and cross-border flows as a coherent aggregate. Howell is not principally a Bitcoin analyst, but his GLI has become foundational to Bitcoin macro-correlation analysis because Bitcoin's mid-horizon price tracks global liquidity with a 10-12 week lag that he has documented across cycles. The framework was popularized for Bitcoin investors by Lyn Alden (within her fiscal-dominance macro framework) and sminston_with (via accessible YouTube and X/Twitter analysis); the canonical book-length statement is Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity (2020). Howell is the institutional anchor of the global-liquidity framework engaged in Bitcoin and global liquidity and used as the primary macro bridge in Using on-chain data for macro positioning.

Why Michael Howell matters

Howell’s intellectual fingerprints are on the macro-financial scaffolding of contemporary Bitcoin analysis:

  • The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) is the canonical institutional measure adopted by the Bitcoin community as its macro-correlation framework. Foundational for Bitcoin and global liquidity and load-bearing for Using on-chain data for macro positioning.
  • The 10-12 week lead-lag between global liquidity changes and Bitcoin price is his documented empirical regularity; the timing convention traces back to his research.
  • The cross-border capital flows framework — worldwide liquidity as one integrated pool with measurable flows — provides the infrastructure for understanding why Bitcoin (global, dollar-denominated, 24/7) is uniquely liquidity-sensitive among asset classes.
  • Institutional credibility. CrossBorder Capital’s client base (asset managers, sovereign wealth funds, central banks) means the GLI is taken seriously in institutional circles, easing Bitcoin’s integration into institutional macro frameworks.
  • The “Bitcoin as high-octane liquidity-sensitive risk asset” framing supports the consensus that Bitcoin behaves as a liquidity-leveraged risk asset short-to-medium term, even if the long-term thesis operates on different mechanics.

Howell is upstream of Bitcoin — the framework was developed from the 1990s onward, well before Bitcoin existed; community adoption is itself evidence of Bitcoin’s structural connection to macro-liquidity dynamics.

Biographical sketch

Origins and formation

Michael Howell trained in economics in the UK and developed his analytical approach during the financialization era of the 1980s and early 1990s. His specific birth year, educational details, and pre-CrossBorder Capital career details are less publicly documented than his framework — he is reserved about personal biography in public-facing material, preferring to let the analytical work stand on its own.

His career formation occurred during the period when global capital flows became operationally measurable: the post-Bretton-Woods era of floating exchange rates, the rise of cross-border banking, the emergence of derivatives and Eurodollar markets, and the deepening of central-bank policy as a primary driver of asset prices. The conceptual foundations of his subsequent global-liquidity framework rest on this era’s structural changes in how money and capital flow internationally.

CrossBorder Capital (1996+)

Howell founded CrossBorder Capital in 1996, based in London. The firm has operated continuously since as a macro-research provider primarily serving institutional clients (asset managers, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, central banks). Distinctive features:

  • Sustained focus on global liquidity as the central analytical framework
  • Quantitative discipline — extensive proprietary data infrastructure, rigorous statistical analysis
  • Cross-asset and cross-geography breadth — the framework spans equities, fixed income, FX, commodities, and (more recently) crypto/Bitcoin
  • Institutional-quality outputs — research reports, indicator dashboards, custom analytical services for clients
  • Subscription-based client relationships — the firm’s product is sustained research-and-analytics access, not one-off publications

CrossBorder Capital has been one of the relatively few independent macro-research shops to maintain a consistent analytical lens across multiple market regimes (1990s emerging-market crises, the dot-com cycle, the 2008 GFC, the 2020 COVID shock, the 2022 inflation shock, and the contemporary period).

Current activity

As of 2026, Howell remains CEO of CrossBorder Capital and continues actively publishing the GLI and related research. His public-facing presence includes:

  • CrossBorder Capital research — institutional-tier publications and dashboards (subscription-based)
  • X/Twitter (@crossbordercap) — frequent posts on liquidity dynamics, central-bank policy implications, and asset-allocation framing
  • Substack publication — periodic essays accessible to a broader audience than the institutional research
  • Podcast appearances — frequent guest on major macro and Bitcoin-adjacent podcasts (Macro Voices, The Bitcoin Layer, What Bitcoin Did, Real Vision, others)
  • Conference and webinar speaking — institutional macro venues and increasingly Bitcoin-and-crypto conferences
  • Book authorship — Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity (2020) and related works

He is unusual among institutional macro researchers for the breadth of audience engagement — institutional-tier research alongside accessible public commentary. The dual-audience approach has been part of why his framework has spread effectively from institutional circles into the Bitcoin community.

Major works

Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity (Palgrave Macmillan, 2020)

Howell’s signature book-length statement of the framework. The book:

  • Documents the structural rise of global liquidity from the post-Bretton-Woods era through 2020
  • Codifies the GLI methodology — what global liquidity is, how to measure it, and why it matters for asset prices
  • Engages central-bank policy — quantitative easing, balance-sheet expansion, and the mechanics of liquidity creation
  • Treats cross-border capital flows as a measurable, structural force in global markets
  • Argues for liquidity as the dominant asset-price driver — more important than earnings, valuations, or sentiment over multi-month horizons

The book is the most-cited single source for the framework. References to “the Howell framework” or “global liquidity” should typically cite this work or CrossBorder Capital’s ongoing research.

CrossBorder Capital institutional research (1996-present)

The firm’s ongoing institutional research is the operational core of Howell’s contribution. Features:

  • Weekly and monthly research reports for institutional clients
  • The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) — proprietary aggregate published with frequency appropriate to its component data
  • Cross-asset analysis — equity, fixed-income, FX, commodity, and crypto correlations with the GLI
  • Custom analytical services for specific institutional clients

The research is subscription-based and not generally publicly accessible. Citations to specific CrossBorder Capital research should acknowledge the institutional-tier-only nature of the underlying data.

Substack publication and X/Twitter (@crossbordercap)

Howell’s accessible public-facing channels. The Substack publishes periodic essays; the X/Twitter account is highly active with multi-daily posts on liquidity, central-bank policy, and asset-allocation framing. The public-facing content typically:

  • Translates the institutional framework into accessible analytical content
  • Posts current-GLI snapshots at intervals
  • Engages with current central-bank policy debates
  • References Bitcoin with increasing frequency in recent years

The Substack and X/Twitter are the primary publicly-accessible primary sources for Howell’s contemporary thinking.

Podcast appearances and interviews

Howell has appeared on dozens of major macro and Bitcoin-adjacent podcasts. Recurring venues include:

  • Real Vision — multiple substantive interviews on the global-liquidity framework
  • Macro Voices (Erik Townsend) — regular appearances
  • The Bitcoin Layer (Nik Bhatia) — multiple Bitcoin-specific episodes
  • What Bitcoin Did (Peter McCormack) — appearances
  • The Investor’s Podcast (Preston Pysh) — Bitcoin-and-macro discussions
  • Various other macro and Bitcoin podcasts

The accumulated podcast archive represents one of the most substantial bodies of accessible Howell content. Specific podcast appearances are valuable primary sources for the framework’s evolution and contemporary application.

Conference presentations and webinars

Howell speaks regularly at institutional macro conferences and increasingly at Bitcoin-and-crypto venues. Recorded talks are available through institutional sponsors and various conference channels.

Howell’s distinctive contributions

The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) framework

Howell’s most consequential contribution is the systematic measurement of global liquidity as an integrated worldwide aggregate. The framework components:

  • Central-bank balance sheets — Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC, BoE, and others, aggregated in common units
  • Commercial-bank credit creation — broad money supply growth, lending, deposit dynamics
  • Shadow-banking liquidity — money-market funds, repo, securitization, off-balance-sheet vehicles
  • Cross-border capital flows — measured through balance-of-payments and banking data

The aggregation methodology is proprietary but the conceptual framework is publicly documented through Capital Wars and ongoing research. The resulting GLI is a year-over-year change measure of the global pool of capital available for asset allocation.

The GLI is the canonical institutional measure of global liquidity. References to “global liquidity” in serious Bitcoin analysis typically trace back to the Howell framework or close cousins (see Bitcoin and global liquidity).

The Bitcoin-liquidity lead-lag (10-12 weeks)

Howell has empirically documented that Bitcoin’s price tracks global liquidity changes with a 10-12 week lag. The specific lead-lag is one of the more cited stylized facts in contemporary Bitcoin-and-macro analysis. The mechanism Howell proposes:

  • Liquidity changes propagate through institutional asset-allocation decisions over multiple weeks
  • Risk-asset positioning adjusts as institutional allocators rebalance
  • Bitcoin, as the highest-octane liquidity-sensitive risk asset, ultimately reflects the liquidity change with characteristic lag
  • The 10-12 week timing reflects the operational reality of institutional decision-making cycles, not a precise mechanical relationship

The 10-12 week lead-lag is foundational to Bitcoin and global liquidity and Using on-chain data for macro positioning.

The “Bitcoin as liquidity-leveraged risk asset” framing

A key analytical contribution: Bitcoin’s volatility and direction in the short-to-medium term is best understood as a leveraged response to global liquidity changes, not as primarily reflecting Bitcoin-specific factors. The framing:

  • Bitcoin moves more than equities to the same liquidity-stimulus
  • Bitcoin moves more than commodities or precious metals on the same liquidity dynamics
  • Bitcoin’s beta to global liquidity is the highest in the major asset classes
  • The high beta reflects Bitcoin’s structural features: 24/7 global liquidity venue, dollar-denominated, no income stream, marginal-buyer-sensitive pricing

This framing is partially in tension with the long-term Bitcoin thesis (hard money, monetary network) — the short-term liquidity-leverage is structurally different from long-term monetary-adoption dynamics. Howell’s contribution is articulating the short-to-medium term framing clearly; he generally does not contest the long-term thesis but also does not principally engage it.

The structural rise of global liquidity

A historical-analytical contribution: global liquidity has grown structurally over the post-Bretton-Woods era in ways that have made it the dominant asset-price driver. The argument:

  • 1971-present: post-gold-standard monetary expansion has accelerated
  • Each crisis triggers further central-bank balance-sheet expansion (2008 GFC, 2020 COVID, ongoing fiscal-dominance dynamics)
  • Global liquidity creation has compounded at rates exceeding GDP growth and aggregate productive capacity
  • The result: asset prices reflect liquidity dynamics more than fundamental valuation, structurally and persistently

The argument has implications for understanding why “fundamental valuation” analysis has been less reliable than liquidity analysis over multi-decade periods. For Bitcoin specifically, the structural rise of global liquidity is one of the macro drivers of monetary alternatives gaining traction.

Cross-border capital flows as structural force

Howell’s framework treats cross-border capital flows as a coherent, measurable force rather than as residual noise around domestic monetary policy. The contribution:

  • Worldwide capital is a single pool that allocates across geographies and asset classes
  • The pool’s size, composition, and flow direction are measurable and consequential
  • Domestic monetary policy is one input among many to global liquidity, not the dominant driver in all cases
  • Cross-border flows produce asset-price effects that are not visible in domestic-only analysis

This cross-border integration framing is part of why Howell’s GLI captures dynamics that single-country aggregates miss. For Bitcoin (a globally-traded asset without domestic-policy constraint), the cross-border framing is particularly relevant.

Howell’s intellectual style

Several features make Howell’s contributions distinctive:

Quantitative rigor with framework clarity

Howell’s work combines extensive quantitative analysis with crisp framework articulation. The pattern:

  • Specific measurable concepts rather than vague qualitative claims
  • Empirical documentation of specific stylized facts (lead-lags, correlations, regime shifts)
  • Framework-driven analysis that integrates multiple data streams coherently
  • Honest acknowledgment of where the framework works and where it doesn’t

This quantitative-yet-framework-clear style distinguishes Howell from purely quantitative researchers (who can produce numbers without coherent analytical framing) and purely qualitative macro analysts (who can produce narratives without rigorous measurement).

Institutional discipline

Howell’s work has the discipline of institutional research: client accountability, multi-year track records, formal methodology, and quality standards consistent with institutional asset-allocation use. The style:

  • Conservative framing of analytical claims
  • Multi-year empirical validation of stylized facts before incorporation into the framework
  • Limited use of dramatic predictions — emphasis on framework application rather than specific calls
  • Sustained methodology rather than chasing fashions

The institutional discipline is part of why the framework has held up across multiple market regimes since the 1990s.

Dual-audience engagement

Unusual among institutional researchers, Howell engages both institutional and public audiences:

  • Institutional clients through subscription research
  • Retail/public audiences through X/Twitter, Substack, books, and podcasts

The dual-audience approach is not common in institutional macro research; most senior figures focus exclusively on institutional engagement. Howell’s broader engagement has been part of why the framework has spread effectively into the Bitcoin community.

Empirically grounded, not theoretically dogmatic

Howell’s framework is grounded in empirical observation of what has happened in markets, not in a specific theoretical school. Features:

  • Not dogmatically Keynesian, Austrian, MMT, or monetarist — selects empirically what works
  • Pragmatic about central-bank policy — analyzes what is happening rather than what should happen
  • Open to revision when evidence warrants framework updates

This empirical pragmatism is distinct from some Bitcoin-community frameworks (notably Austrian-Bitcoin) that have specific theoretical commitments. The contrast is generally complementary — Howell provides macro-empirical scaffolding that the theoretical-Bitcoin frameworks can engage.

British analytical tradition

Howell’s London base and British analytical tradition produce a specific style: empirical, institution-aware, less ideologically committed than some American macro frameworks, and operationally focused on what can be measured and acted on. The style is part of why CrossBorder Capital has retained credibility across diverse institutional client bases.

Howell and the contemporary Bitcoin-and-macro community

What Howell inherits

  • The cross-border-flows analytical tradition — work by economists at the IMF, BIS, and similar institutions documenting global capital flows from the 1970s-1990s
  • Monetary-aggregate analysis — central-bank balance-sheet analysis, broad-money-supply tracking
  • Asset-allocation framework discipline — quantitative tools developed for institutional asset management

What Howell adds

  • The integrated GLI methodology combining diverse liquidity sources into a single aggregate
  • The empirical documentation of asset-price lead-lags with global liquidity, including the Bitcoin 10-12 week relationship
  • The cross-asset and cross-geography breadth of analysis
  • The institutional credibility that made the framework usable for serious capital-allocation decisions
  • The book-length statement (Capital Wars) that codified the framework
  • The contemporary Bitcoin integration — engaging Bitcoin’s specific liquidity-sensitivity

What Howell doesn’t focus on

  • Bitcoin-specific protocol or technical analysis — Wuille, Maxwell, others handle
  • Austrian or sound-money theoretical frameworks — Ammous, Mises tradition handles
  • On-chain cohort analysis — Check, Ryan handle (Howell’s framework is upstream of on-chain analytics, providing the macro context within which on-chain signals operate)
  • Long-term price modeling — Santostasi, Perrenod handle (different timescale)
  • Self-custody and operational — Lopp handles
  • Specific cycle-trading frameworks — Howell’s framework is structural rather than cycle-mechanistic

His contribution is the institutional global-liquidity framework. Other contributors cover other dimensions; Howell covers this one most rigorously among contemporary voices.

Where Howell fits in the broader Bitcoin discourse

The institutional macro-financial anchor for Bitcoin’s mid-horizon analysis. Within the contemporary Bitcoin-and-macro framework:

  • Theoretical Austrian-economics core: Ammous, Mises tradition
  • Trajectory framework: Boyapati, Santostasi/Perrenod
  • Empirical-macro synthesis with fiscal dominance: Alden
  • Cohort-and-on-chain layer: Check, Ryan (On-Chain Mind)
  • Institutional global-liquidity macro: Howell ← this tier

The architecture is complementary: Howell provides the rigorous institutional macro framework; Alden provides the synthesis with fiscal dominance and broader Bitcoin-monetary theory; sminston_with operationalizes for retail use; the on-chain analysts (Check, Ryan) work at the intra-cycle layer that sits beneath the Howell macro layer.

For a reader engaging Howell:

  1. Capital Wars book — the canonical book-length statement
  2. CrossBorder Capital research — for institutional-tier access (subscription-based)
  3. X/Twitter @crossbordercap — for ongoing public-facing commentary
  4. Substack publication — for accessible essay-length engagement
  5. Selected podcast appearances — especially Real Vision and The Bitcoin Layer for Bitcoin-specific engagement

Pair Howell with Lyn Alden (the broader macro synthesis incorporating his framework), sminston_with (the retail-investor operationalization), and James Check + Ryan - On-Chain Mind (the on-chain layer that sits beneath the macro framework).

See: Lyn Alden, sminston_with, James Check, Ryan - On-Chain Mind, Bitcoin and global liquidity, Bitcoin and the ISM PMI cycle.

Counter-arguments and tensions

A serious thinker page engages the genuine debates.

Institutional-versus-retail framework accessibility

The argument: The full Howell framework requires institutional-tier CrossBorder Capital research subscriptions. Retail investors can only access simplified proxies (Substack essays, X/Twitter posts, the Capital Wars book). The retail accessible content is less complete than the institutional output. Critics argue this two-tier accessibility creates an analytical gap between institutional and retail Bitcoin investors.

Response: Real concern. The CrossBorder Capital business model is subscription-based; the institutional research carries data costs and analytical infrastructure that retail investors can’t reasonably access. The mitigation: retail operationalizations (sminston_with’s YouTube approach using publicly-available proxies like M2, DXY, net liquidity) capture much of the framework’s content using accessible inputs. The honest reading: serious retail engagement with the framework is possible but requires simplification compared to institutional access.

”The GLI is empirically calibrated, not theoretically derived”

The argument: Howell’s GLI is built from empirical observation of which liquidity components correlate with asset prices. The specific weighting and component selection are not derived from first-principles monetary theory; they are empirical fits. The framework’s robustness across regimes could partially reflect overfitting to historical samples.

Response: Partially right. The GLI is empirically grounded rather than theoretically derived. Howell’s defense (implicit in the framework’s sustained track record): the empirical regularities have held across multiple market regimes since the 1990s, which suggests structural content rather than overfitting. The honest reading is that the framework has more empirical robustness than pure curve-fitting but less theoretical grounding than a first-principles derivation.

The 10-12 week Bitcoin lead-lag may not hold

The argument: The Bitcoin-global-liquidity 10-12 week lead-lag is documented in historical data, but Bitcoin’s institutional integration has shifted across cycles. The 2020-2022 relationship may not be identical to the 2024+ ETF-era relationship. The specific 10-12 week timing may need recalibration.

Response: Right. Howell himself has acknowledged the lead-lag may shift with structural changes. The contemporary recalibration question is active — as Bitcoin’s institutional integration deepens (ETFs, corporate treasuries, sovereign holdings), the response time to global liquidity changes may compress or extend. The framework’s directional content (Bitcoin tracks global liquidity) is more stable than the specific timing.

Liquidity-leveraged risk-asset framing conflicts with monetary-asset framing

The argument: Howell’s framing of Bitcoin as a “high-octane liquidity-sensitive risk asset” is in some tension with the Bitcoin-community framing of Bitcoin as a monetary asset (hard money, store of value, monetary network). If Bitcoin is fundamentally a liquidity-leveraged risk asset, it may not function as the monetary asset its long-term thesis depends on. The two framings need reconciliation.

Response: Substantive point. The honest reading is that Bitcoin can be both, on different timescales: a liquidity-leveraged risk asset in the short-to-medium term (3-18 months) and a monetary asset in the long term (5+ years). The two framings are not contradictory because they operate on different mechanics — the short-term liquidity sensitivity reflects Bitcoin’s current trading-market structure; the long-term monetary thesis reflects Bitcoin’s structural properties (fixed supply, decentralization, censorship resistance). Howell generally does not contest the long-term thesis but does not principally engage it; his contribution is the short-to-medium term framing. Lyn Alden’s broader framework integrates both more explicitly.

”Global liquidity is the wrong aggregate”

The argument: Different liquidity measures (M2, broad money, Howell GLI, net Treasury liquidity, central-bank balance sheets, RRP-adjusted measures, etc.) produce different correlations and different lead-lags with asset prices. The choice of which aggregate to use is partially arbitrary; serious analysis should test multiple measures rather than privileging Howell’s GLI specifically.

Response: Right as critique of single-aggregate analysis. Sophisticated practitioners use multiple liquidity measures and test their relative explanatory power. Howell’s GLI is one well-developed framework; alternative aggregates (Crescat Capital’s measures, various academic frameworks, simpler M2-based approaches) provide complementary perspectives. The honest reading: GLI is a strong framework but not the unique correct measure.

Cycle-attenuation may affect the framework

The argument: As global liquidity has structurally risen, the marginal impact of each additional liquidity injection may diminish. The framework’s predictive content may attenuate over time as the global liquidity pool saturates relative to global productive capacity. The 2024-2025 cycle’s apparently-muted price response to substantial liquidity expansion may partly reflect this attenuation.

Response: Real concern. The framework’s longer-term predictive content depends on continued structural liquidity-asset price linkage. Whether saturation effects degrade the framework over time is an active question. Howell’s framework would benefit from explicit engagement with possible saturation dynamics.

Institutional positioning creates reflexivity

The argument: As more institutional allocators use the Howell framework (or close cousins) for positioning, the framework’s signals become reflexively integrated into market behavior. The 10-12 week lead-lag may compress as institutional anticipation of liquidity-driven moves accelerates. The framework’s apparent reliability may degrade through its own adoption.

Response: Substantively right. Reflexivity is a real concern for widely-adopted frameworks. The honest reading is that the framework’s contemporary application requires awareness of its own market impact. Specific recalibration of timing parameters may be ongoing.

Limited Bitcoin-theoretical engagement

The argument: Howell’s work engages Bitcoin as one risk asset among many; he does not principally engage the Austrian-Bitcoin theoretical framework, the philosophical case for sound money, or the specific Bitcoin-as-monetary-revolution thesis. For Bitcoin-community engagement, this limited theoretical scope means Howell shouldn’t be cited as a Bitcoin theorist proper.

Response: Right. Howell is a macro-financial analyst whose framework happens to be highly informative for Bitcoin; he is not a Bitcoin theorist in the Saifedean Ammous or Vijay Boyapati sense. His contribution to the broader Bitcoin discussion is the macro-empirical framework, not theoretical foundations. The honest reading: cite Howell for macro analysis; cite other thinkers for Bitcoin-specific theoretical foundations.

Where to read Michael Howell

Essential primary readings

  • Howell, Michael J., Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity (Palgrave Macmillan, 2020) — the canonical book-length statement of the framework. Essential.
  • CrossBorder Capital research (subscription-based) — the institutional-tier publications and dashboards.
  • CrossBorder Capital Substack — accessible essay-length engagement.

Public-facing content

  • @crossbordercap on X/Twitter — highly active; substantial educational content; ongoing GLI commentary.
  • CrossBorder Capital website (crossbordercapital.com) — public-facing materials and research excerpts.

Podcast appearances

Howell appears regularly on major macro and Bitcoin-adjacent podcasts. Notable venues:

  • Real Vision — multiple substantive interviews on the global-liquidity framework
  • Macro Voices (Erik Townsend) — regular appearances
  • The Bitcoin Layer (Nik Bhatia) — multiple Bitcoin-specific episodes
  • What Bitcoin Did (Peter McCormack) — appearances
  • The Investor’s Podcast (Preston Pysh) — Bitcoin-and-macro discussions
  • Various Lyn Alden joint appearances — multi-host discussions of the macro framework

The accumulated podcast archive provides extensive primary source for the framework’s evolution and Bitcoin-specific application.

Secondary engagement

  • Lyn Alden writings and podcast appearances integrating the Howell framework
  • sminston_with YouTube and X/Twitter operationalizations for retail
  • Various Bitcoin-and-macro analyses building on or engaging the Howell framework
  • James Check macro commentary integrating Howell-style liquidity framing

For the Bitcoin connection specifically

  • Capital Wars discusses cross-asset implications including Bitcoin
  • CrossBorder Capital recent research increasingly engages Bitcoin
  • Podcast appearances on Bitcoin-specific venues (The Bitcoin Layer, What Bitcoin Did, Investor’s Podcast) directly engage the Bitcoin-and-global-liquidity question

Where Michael Howell fits in the broader Bitcoin discourse

The institutional global-liquidity anchor for Bitcoin’s macro analysis. Specifically valuable for:

  • The GLI framework as the canonical institutional liquidity measure
  • The 10-12 week Bitcoin lead-lag as the documented empirical regularity
  • The Bitcoin-as-liquidity-leveraged-risk-asset framing for short-to-medium-term analysis
  • The cross-border capital flows framework providing global integration analysis
  • The institutional credibility that brings Bitcoin analysis into serious capital-allocation circles
  • The structural-rise-of-global-liquidity historical thesis

Recommended Howell engagement:

  1. Capital Wars book — foundational text; read first
  2. Selected podcast appearances (Real Vision, The Bitcoin Layer) for accessible Bitcoin-specific engagement
  3. CrossBorder Capital Substack for ongoing essay-length content
  4. X/Twitter for daily commentary

Pair Howell with Lyn Alden (broader macro synthesis), sminston_with (retail operationalization), and the on-chain analysts (James Check, Ryan - On-Chain Mind) for the full macro-and-on-chain analytical stack.

For the macro-positioning synthesis (the Using on-chain data for macro positioning note), Howell’s framework is the load-bearing macro input that the on-chain layer bridges to.

Open questions

Questions worth tracking:

  • How does the 10-12 week Bitcoin lead-lag evolve in the ETF era? As Bitcoin’s institutional integration deepens, the response timing to global liquidity changes may compress or extend.
  • Does the framework hold through major regime changes? Fiscal-dominance dynamics, central-bank policy regime shifts, and potential currency-system reorganizations could affect the framework’s calibration.
  • What is the appropriate Bitcoin allocation framework when liquidity-leveraged-risk-asset framing (Howell) and hard-money framing (Ammous, Boyapati) point in different directions? The two timescales need integration.
  • How does the framework engage potential saturation dynamics? Long-term liquidity growth relative to productive capacity may attenuate the framework’s predictive content.
  • Will reflexivity from widespread framework adoption blunt its signals? As more allocators use Howell or close cousins, the framework’s lead-lag may compress.
  • What is the appropriate aggregation of multiple liquidity measures? GLI alongside M2, net Treasury liquidity, and other measures may produce richer analysis than any single aggregate.
  • How does the framework handle crypto’s contribution to global liquidity itself? As stablecoin supply, crypto custodial holdings, and tokenized assets grow, crypto becomes a measurable component of global liquidity rather than just a recipient of liquidity flows.
  • What is the next generation of CrossBorder Capital research? Howell’s successors and the firm’s institutional trajectory are open questions for the framework’s longevity.

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